Former President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on tariffs has sent ripples through global markets, impacting everything from stock prices to cryptocurrency values. This policy shift is drawing attention to a document known as the “Miran Report,” which some analysts believe is shaping Trump’s economic strategy.
The “Miran Report,” authored by Harvard economist Steven Miran, who later served as chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Committee, proposes a important overhaul of the global trade system. The 41-page paper, originally titled ‘Global Trade System Reconstruction Guide’, advocates for combining tariffs with other policies to address what it sees as essential flaws in the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order.
The report’s central argument revolves around the idea of sharing the costs associated with maintaining the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.It suggests using tariffs as leverage to pressure allies into contributing more to the system. While initially dismissed by some, the “Miran Report” gained traction within the Trump governance and is now viewed by some as a key influence on the former president’s economic policies.
A core tenet of the “Miran Report” is the concept of a “structural strong dollar.” The report argues that the dollar’s dominance has led to an overvaluation, making U.S. exports less competitive and imports cheaper, thereby harming American manufacturing. This, in turn, has led to job losses and economic hardship for many Americans, according to the report’s analysis.
Classical economics suggests that a country with trade deficits should see its currency weaken, boosting exports and restoring balance. However, the report contends that this mechanism doesn’t function properly in the United States due to the dollar’s unique role as the world’s reserve currency. The persistent demand for dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds allows the country to sustain large deficits without the currency weakening as was to be expected.
The report references what is known as “Triffin’s dilemma,” where a country issuing the global reserve currency faces a conflict between meeting global demand for its currency and maintaining a healthy domestic economy. The “Miran Report” proposes a restructuring of the international monetary system to address this dilemma.
Instead of abandoning the dollar’s reserve currency status, the “Miran Report” suggests finding ways to share the benefits and burdens with other countries. The report outlines three primary goals: resolving the “structural strong dollar” issue, revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, and preserving the dollar’s global dominance.
To achieve these goals, the report proposes a combination of incentives and pressure tactics. It suggests converting foreign countries’ dollar assets into “permanent bonds” with near-zero interest rates. In exchange for accepting these terms, allies would receive assurances of U.S. security and reduced tariffs.The report suggests a tariff rate of 20-25% as a potential level.
Trump has previously declared April 2 as “Liberation Day,” signaling a renewed focus on tariffs. He has argued that the United States has been exploited for decades and that it is time to reclaim wealth and respect.The “Miran Report” provides a potential framework for achieving these goals, outlining specific policies and strategies.
Whether the “Miran Report” will be fully implemented remains to be seen. However, its influence on Trump’s economic thinking is undeniable, and its proposals could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
