September 28, (THEWILL) — Despite the continued growth of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the last six quarters (Q1 2024 to Q2 2025), when agriculture also recorded significant expansion in real terms, the value of imported agricultural products rose significantly during the period.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the value of Nigeria’s agricultural imports rose from N920.54 billion in Q1 2024 to N1.18 trillion in Q2 2025, representing a 28.6 percent increase.
A breakdown of the reports showed that in Q1 2024, when the GDP recorded a 2.98 percent growth, agriculture grew by 0.18 percent against 5.70 percent for oil. The value of agricultural imports during the period was N920.54 billion.
However, the value of agricultural imports dropped to N893.25 billion or 2.0 percent in Q2 2024 when the GDP rose by 3.19 percent, while the agriculture sector climbed by1.41 percent compared with 10.15 percent for oil.
The imported agricultural goods further dropped to ₦882.24 billion representing a 1.2 percent decline in Q3 2024 with the agriculture sector rising by 1.14 percent compared with oil 5.17 percent while the GDP grew by 3.46 percent.
Apparently, reflecting the impact of the devaluation of the naira, the value of agricultural goods imported in Q4 2024 soared to ₦1.09 trillion, reflecting an increase of 23.61 percent when compared to ₦882.24 billion in Q3 2024. Agriculture grew by 1.76 percent while 1.48 percent growth was recorded in the oil sector for a quarter with a GDP growth of 3.84 percent.
In Q1 2025, imported agricultural goods decreased to ₦1.03 trillion as agriculture growth rose by 0.07 percent compared to the oil sector which climbed by 13.81 percent as GDP rose by 3.13 percent.
The value of agricultural goods imported in Q2 2025 stood at ₦1.18 trillion, representing a 32.60 percent increase compared to ₦893.25 billion recorded in Q2 2024, and a 14.35 percent increase relative to N1.03 trillion recorded in Q1 2025.
During the quarter, GDP recorded a 4.23 percent growth while agriculture and oil grew at 4.23 percent and 20.46 percent respectively. Overall, imported agricultural products during the six quarters soared by 28.6 percent signifying a structural paradox in an economy lauded for its GDP growth. There was little impact on job creation as a result of limited linkages in the “expanding” sectors.
According to the NBS, the major agricultural goods imported in Q2, 2025 included ‘Durum wheat’ from Canada and Russia valued at N112.08 billion and N108.78 billion respectively.
This was followed by ‘Blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis) meat, frozen,’ valued at N32.88 billion and N29.18 billion from The Netherlands and Faroes Island respectively. This was followed by ‘Jack and horse mackerel meat, frozen’ valued at N59.65 billion from Chile.
“The agricultural items imported by Nigeria are mainly wheat and protein products which can be produced locally if the enabling environment is there. We do not have electricity for processing and insecurity constitutes a major challenge. The economy is not attracting domestic and foreign investors to boost production and create jobs. Even fishing has become an endangered occupation,” said Dr Benneth Abba, an industrialist with focus on agricultural processing.
According to Abba, an import-dependent economy cannot grow because it outsources jobs to other countries where production takes place. He noted that Nigeria’s GDP growth does not reflect expansion of job opportunities as a result of this scenario.
This explains why Services is the major driver of the GDP growth over the years. Industry experts argue that having Services as the main driver of an unproductive economy is an abnormal situation.
Hogan Ekpo, Professor of Economics and Public Policy Emeritus at the University of Uyo, said the impression being promoted that the Nigerian economy is growing strong and in the right direction, is misleading. According to him, the economy is still largely dependent on oil which makes it more worrying because, “with a little shock in the international market, the whole thing will crumble.” He said having a prosperous Services sector without industrialization suggests that something is not in the right place.
Speaking as a guest on the popular Arise Television News ‘Morning Show’ on Wednesday, August 6, 2025, Prof Ekpo lamented the non-producing nature of the Nigerian economy which the authorities have continued to celebrate its “growing GDP” and high inflow of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) against significant decline of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
He maintained that the economy is not being built on a strong productive base and that the boom in Foreign Portfolio Investment, largely driven by short-term investments in stocks and government securities — referred to as ‘Hot Money’, has no value-adding capacity in real terms of economic growth.
He also added that the increasing national debt stock makes the matter worse as the huge debt is being serviced with revenue that ought to have been deployed towards building viable infrastructure.
“A major problem with our economy is this obsession for revenue. We want to increase revenue for consumption – give to the political class, to waste and to service debts. You do not look at the other side – production.
“We celebrate external reserves. I was a member of the CBN Monetary Policy Committee. I can tell you that the reserves are provisional. It is temporary. If anything happens to the international oil market today, the whole thing will be wiped out because the economy is not producing.
“You must have a productive economy where your reserves are not dependent on the export of only crude oil; where the refineries and companies are producing, exporting and earning foreign exchange.”
In recent times, the non-oil sector has remained the top contributor to Nigeria’s GDP, as it accounted for 95.95 per cent in real terms to GDP in Q2 2025. This follows the substantial increase in tax revenue resulting from the massive reforms introduced by the government. However, oil remains the major foreign revenue earner and there is a limit to which tax could drive the economy if there is little production.
In the same vein, Mr Tilewa Adebajo, CEO, CFG Advisory, expressed concern over the series of reforms adopted by the current Nigerian government amid rising debts which are not positively impacting on the lives of the people — to drive productivity. While he commends the reform initiatives, he argued that a sustainable productive base is necessary to achieve the long-term objectives of the reforms.
“Making matters worse, total government borrowing has hit the US$100 billion mark. Debt service costs have doubled from ₦8 trillion in 2024 to ₦16.3 trillion in the proposed 2025 budget, making debt servicing the largest expenditure item.
“This is unsustainable, especially as the amount surpasses the combined budgets for defence, security, infrastructure, education, and health, which total ₦14 trillion. The recent legislative approval of an additional US$21 billion in borrowing is a red flag,” the financial analyst and investment banking expert noted in his Half-Year Update on the Economy in August.
