The stock market seems calm on the surface, but there’s chaos brewing beneath it that could potentially disrupt the tranquility. Despite the S&P 500 index’s 1.1% weekly rise and its projected achievement of closing above 5000 for the first time, there are signs that this apparent stability may not last. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains relatively stagnant, while the Nasdaq Composite has seen a 1.9% increase.
This narrative, with a few minor modifications, suggests that inflation is under control, the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, and the economy continues to grow. These factors create a favorable environment for corporate profits, as illustrated by the latest earnings releases. Surpassing expectations by 6.8% and outperforming the average of the past four quarters (5.7%), these reports anticipate a promising 9% earnings growth during the fourth quarter.
However, behind this calm facade lies a more complex reality. This is especially evident in the stocks of companies that have announced their fourth-quarter results. It’s natural for earnings announcements to trigger significant price movements, but the recent responses have been unprecedented. Data from Dow Jones indicates that, on average, S&P 500 stocks have experienced a 3.6% swing following their reports – surpassing the 2.7% median of the past decade.
The prevailing calm may soon give way to heightened volatility in the stock market. Investors should remain vigilant amidst these uncertain times to ensure their portfolios are primed for any potential disruptions.
The Uncertain Outlook for Companies and the Market
The current market situation is characterized by large swings in stock prices, which reflect the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for companies. Despite the overall market appearing to be favorable, investors are wary of potential risks that could impact economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.
According to Tom Essaye from Sevens Report, investors are on edge, leading to more intense reactions to company earnings results. This can be seen in the negative market response to FMC, which dropped 11.5% due to below-consensus guidance attributed in part to adverse weather conditions in Brazil. On the other hand, companies delivering positive news are being rewarded with soaring stock prices. Palantir Technologies, for instance, experienced a 31% jump in its stock value after reporting better-than-expected earnings driven by strong demand from commercial customers.
Interestingly, despite the volatility in stock prices, it is not yet reflected in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which currently stands at 12.8. This is considerably below its 20-year average of 17.7 and has actually decreased from 21.7 on October 20th. Given the significant gains of the S&P 500 since October and the presence of potential risks, this level of volatility seems surprisingly low. Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel believes that volatility should be considered as the norm rather than an exception. He suggests that the S&P 500 could experience a substantial downward move of around 10%.
In light of these factors, investors should start preparing themselves for potential market turbulence in the future.
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