XRP – The polarising project that everyone loves to hate!
Nevertheless, XRP is here to stay.
After being gifted with some hefty gains Q4 24 into Q1 25 due to various fundamental factors (BTC breaks ATH, USA going pro-crypto, further speculative advantages ) the token has recently hit a ceiling around ATH; where price has chopped between $2 and $3.25. recent discussions around the strategic reserve have failed to ignite any major price action; stifled by ongoing SEC deliberations which maintain elements of uncertainty regarding regulatory clarity.
Many theories around the future of this bull run and the future of the crypto sphere in general are diverse. One thing for certain, is the present market does not bide well to supporting an aggressive breakout in the immediate term. With ongoing conflict, inconsistent messaging from the US, and wider market influences (Stocks, FX and others becoming increasingly over inflated) risk on assets are not front of mind right now.
With this said, what is interesting is that large imbalances have been left before or after consolidation; with areas of note being $1 and $1.69 respectively. $2 has developed as a very strong support; thus break below here could see sustained downturn in price action until clarity is provided around the future of the project. Given most crypto assets are hovering around highs or ATH’s the market too provides little upside opportunity compared to downside risk. If I was a MM; I would want to be positioned much lower in case of major financial unrest in other markets to hedge against potential losses.
Imbalances provide such an opportunity and would be accessed through a black swan event, or other narrative influenced price action. As such, my outlook for the immediate term is expect a very tumultuous 3-6 months. Don’t be surprised if mainstream media get behind a FUD narrative, and the retail pile on commences.
My call – Atleast another retest of the $2 psychological support level. Break here; we are headed straight for $1.69 which would be a great buy. Enough Mainstream FUD; and retailers could be caught in shorts below this price down to around the $1.00 level. Both levels offer amazing long term RR opportunities.
