Political analysts are predicting that Donald Trump will emerge victorious in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary, making a potential win for Nikki Haley quite surprising. The prevailing opinion is that Trump will then shift his focus towards the general election against President Joe Biden.
According to Tobin Marcus, head of policy and politics at Wolfe Research, Trump’s impressive performance in the Iowa Caucus, coupled with Ron DeSantis’ decision to exit the race, and the expected loss for Nikki Haley on her home turf in New Hampshire, signify the effective conclusion of the GOP primary. As a result, we can anticipate an earlier-than-anticipated transition into the general election season.
Betting markets and polls currently favor Trump. PredictIt, a prominent market, gives the former president a 95% chance of victory in New Hampshire, a significant increase from just 67% on Jan. 13. In addition, Trump enjoys a 56% support rate according to a RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire polls. In contrast, Haley trails behind at 37%, with DeSantis at a distant 8% before dropping out of the race.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, concurs that the nomination battle is essentially over this winter. Valliere predicts that Trump will win New Hampshire comfortably, thereby relegating Haley to a distant second place.
Looking ahead, the focus will shift to South Carolina, Haley’s home state, for the primary on Feb. 24. As an underdog in this state, the prospect of losing may prompt her to exit the race within weeks or even days, as noted by Valliere.
Trump’s Outlook for the GOP Nomination
The race for the 2024 GOP nomination seems to heavily favor Donald Trump. However, looking beyond the nomination, the general election on Nov. 5 holds a different narrative. The strategist at AGF acknowledges that Iowa and New Hampshire do not fully represent the entire country, and recent polls reveal a noteworthy surge in economic confidence.
Positive Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment has experienced a significant increase, reaching its highest level since July 2021. This surge indicates growing optimism among consumers.
Trump’s Potential Triumph
As the battle for the GOP nomination unfolds, Chris Krueger, a strategist and managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, believes it may soon reach a definitive outcome. Should Trump secure a victory in New Hampshire, the GOP primary will likely come to a close. However, Krueger emphasizes that the race will only be officially over at the Republican National Convention in July.
Trump’s Economic Proposals
Trump’s second-term economic proposals encompass various measures. These include implementing a 10% tariff on all imports, making another attempt to put an end to Obamacare XLV, tackling the issue of student debt through the launch of an online college called the American Academy, and reducing the top corporate tax rate to 15%. This proposed “tax cut 2.0” has the potential to bolster stock prices.
Positive Stock Market Performance
On Tuesday morning, major U.S. stock benchmarks traded mostly higher. This comes after the Dow closed above 38,000 for the first time, signaling positive momentum in the stock market.
Looking Ahead: New Hampshire GOP Primary
For more insight into the upcoming New Hampshire GOP primary, consider reading “New Hampshire GOP Primary: Haley tries to turn the tide, as Trump cruises toward the 2024 nomination.”
Nikki Haley’s Endeavor in New Hampshire
Alternatively, you can explore “‘America does not do coronations’: Nikki Haley hopes to derail Trump in New Hampshire” to gain an understanding of Nikki Haley’s attempts to challenge Trump’s dominance in the state.
