By Dan Molinski
According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have fallen from the previous week. The average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders shows a expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels for the week ended July 21. Nine out of ten forecasters predicted a decrease, while one predicted a week-on-week increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 5.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
The highly anticipated inventory data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Gasoline and Distillates Inventory Expectations
Analysts also expect gasoline inventories to fall by 1.7 million barrels compared to the previous week. The estimated range for this decrease varies from 1 million barrels to 3 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which consist mainly of diesel fuel, are expected to decline by 600,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Forecasts for this category range from a decrease of 4.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.7 million barrels.
Refinery Use Forecast
According to industry experts, refinery use is predicted to rise by 0.1 percentage points to reach 94.4% for the current week. Forecasts vary from a decline of 0.9 percentage points to an increase of 1 percentage point. However, two analysts did not provide a forecast for this period.
API Data Analysis
The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, released its own data for the week. According to a source, API reported a 1.3 million-barrel increase in crude supplies, along with a 1 million-barrel decline in gasoline stocks and a 1.6 million-barrel increase in diesel inventories.
Analyst Forecasts (in millions of barrels)
Here is a breakdown of the refinery use and inventory forecasts provided by various analysts:
| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |————————–|———|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -2.9 | -1.8 | -2.1 | -0.4 | | Commodity Research Group | -2 | -1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | | Confluence Investment Management | -2.5 | -1 | 0.5 | unch | | DTN | -1.2 | -2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | | Excel Futures | -1.4 | -1.7 | -0.6 | 0.4 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 1.6 | -1.1 | 0.8 | n/f | | Mizuho | -1 | -1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -3 | -3 | 1 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -3.7 | -1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 | | Tradition Energy | -5.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | n/f | | Average | -2.2 | -1.7 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
Note: n/f indicates no forecast, and unch means unchanged.