Market Expectations Impact Rates
In the latest week, U.S. mortgage applications experienced a decline due to mortgage rates remaining over 7%. This increase in rates is attributed to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut its benchmark interest rate in March.
Market Composite Index Falls
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the overall market composite index, which serves as a measure of mortgage application volume, fell by 5.6% to 171.5 for the week ending February 23 from the previous week. Comparatively, a year ago, the index was at 187.6.
Impact on Purchase and Refinance Applications
The purchase index, indicating mortgage applications for home purchases, fell by 4.5% from the previous week. Similarly, the refinance index saw a decline of 7.3% as homeowners found limited incentives to refinance their mortgages.
Average Contract Rates
- The average contract rate for a 30-year mortgage on homes sold for $766,550 or less was 7.04% for the week ending February 23, slightly lower than the previous week’s rate of 7.06%.
- For jumbo loans (30-year mortgages on homes sold for over $766,550), the average rate increased to 7.2% from 7.16%.
- The average rate for a 30-year mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration decreased to 6.86% from 6.91%.
Other Rate Changes
- The 15-year mortgage rate rose to 6.7% from 6.61%.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages saw a decrease in rates to 6.33% from the previous week’s 6.37%. Housing Market Trends in 2023
Notably, there was a significant divergence in mortgage activity between newly built homes and existing homes, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). While overall purchase activity lags behind last year by 12%, applications for newly built homes saw a notable increase of 19% compared to the previous year.
The Current Scenario
The real estate industry is closely monitoring the impact of rising mortgage rates, with concerns about how the current 7% rates could potentially hinder sales. In 2023, existing-home sales plummeted to a 29-year low, attributed to elevated mortgage rates reaching as high as 8% in October.
Challenges for Home Buyers
Home buyers are facing challenges from all sides. The escalating mortgage rates are limiting the affordability of homes, further compounded by the continuous rise in home prices. A potential drop in rates could make homes more affordable, but it would also attract more competition. Coupled with the scarcity of available homes for sale, this could potentially lead to bidding wars and further drive up prices.
Insights from the MBA
The MBA highlighted the stark contrast in mortgage demand between new and resale homes. Mike Fratantoni, the senior vice president and chief economist at the MBA, emphasized that the lack of existing inventory remains the primary obstacle to increasing purchase volume. However, he also noted that mortgage rates exceeding 7% are not aiding the situation.